A lot of op-eds get written about the future of energy, but very few tables of hard data get published. Tables are certainly boring and easy to gloss over, but are probably much easier to understand and comprehend for someone who is motivated to learn.
I was able to find the above data online from the department of energy. The analogy I see here is back in the early 2000s when Netflix was shipping more data via mail then through their own servers. We currently ship more energy via gasoline than we do through our electrical grid.
The pattern between the two energy delivery systems is somewhat surprising. I would have thought the increased push for efficiency in automobiles as well as the increasing purchase of electric vehicles would have put downward pressure on gasoline in relation to home energy usage. I’m not sure how rooftop solar gets accounted for in these numbers, but perhaps that is what is driving this trend?
This data also suggests that in order for gasoline to disappear, the electrical grid would have to be able to provide roughly 125% more energy than it does today, assuming a 1:1 translation between the two. (Cursory reading of electric grid efficiency vs gasoline efficiency suggests this isn’t a horrible assumption) That seems like a daunting task that will take decades, regardless of the adoption rate of electric vehicles.